Sticks of Fire: a Tampa blog

No other sporting event will be as widely watched this weekend as the NFL Draft, which is somewhat surprising considering the closest any of the players come to an athletic field is the green room. Much like College Basketball’s Selection Sunday, the NFL Draft has transformed from a non-event to Must See TV. Last year’s draft on ESPN pulled a 5.8 rating for the first three hours on Saturday. By comparison, the next closest sporting event that weekend (an NBA playoff game) pulled a 4.3, and afternoon college football on ESPN on average draws a 2.0. The NFL Draft has become an insatiable ratings juggernaut.

This year’s draft should be one of the more entertaining in recent history, since it is the first time in a while that nobody knows how the top five picks will play out….which is undoubtedly keeping Gruden and company up late at night. It is no secret Gruden adores Calvin Johnson but the question remains, will CJ be available at #4 when the Bucs pick? Let’s run down the odds on who the Bucs will take in the first round, starting with the least likely.

Gaines Adams - de - Clemson: 10%

To be honest I am somewhat surprised by Adams rise up the draft boards. He is a legit pick….unlike Mario Williams last year, scouts have considered Adams a first round pick since the beginning of the season. But there are other defensive ends in the draft with skill sets similar to Adams who can be had much later (i.e. Quentin Moses). Plus, Simeon Rice looks healthy and should be back this season so the Bucs do not have a pressing need at defensive end.

Amobi Okoye - dt - Lousiville: 15%

If the Bucs go defense in the first round Okoye, the Sapp-like prodigy, is the more likely choice. Okoye is the extremely rare 20 year old college grad who entered Louisville when he was 16. The Bucs desperately need somebody to replace Booger and there is no better candidate than Okoye. If the Bucs don’t draft a defensive tackle in the first round it is a lock they will do so in the second or third rounds (i.e. Turk McBride or Marcus Thomas).

Joe Thomas - ot - Wisconsin: 30%

The left tackle is the most important position on the offense after the quarterback, since left tackles face the best pass rusher on the defense. Thomas appears to have that rare combination of size and agility required to play one of the most demanding positions in football. It should not surprise you that I think Thomas is the smart pick for the Bucs, while CJ is the sexy pick. The Bucs have a lot of question marks at tackle and Thomas would provide a pretty damn good answer.

Calvin Johnson - wr - Georgia Tech: 45%

I saved the best for last. If Gruden were to create the perfect receiver he could do little better than CJ, an egoless, hard-working, intelligent, competitive and athletically-gifted receiver. The only problem with CJ is that he may be off the board by the time the Bucs pick. There are multiple scenarios with Detroit doing everything from trading from #2 with a team like Atlanta, to Detroit drafting CJ and then selling him to the highest bidder, to Detroit drafting CJ and trading their other receivers to keep CJ.

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I think the Bucs will end up with Joe Thomas come Saturday, which isn’t a bad thing. CJ has too much value attached to him for Detroit to simply pass him up. That being written, Thomas is a pretty damn good pull for the Bucs for a variety of reasons I go into at length at my own blog.

And a quick reminder, BucStats is having a draft contest where you can win a Buc Gear gift certificate for $50 or a draft day Buc hat.

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