dissecting the bucs: your 2007 preview (pt. 2)

With the Bucs season opener just one day away we finish up our preview of this year’s team, with a focus on the new players and predictions on the wins total. You got a guess on how many wins the Bucs will rack up? Leave them in the comments.

Again, thanks to Scott from the omnipresent BucStats and John from the well-written BoltsMag for their help in preparing this preview. A quick reminder, John’s in bold, Scott’s in italic, and I’m plain ol’ text.

John: Who is the absolute key pickup for the Bucs this off season and the key loss that will effect play on field? Oh, besides Garcia (in defense of the “it’s not all on the Quarterback” philosophy.

Scott: Key pickup is Kevin Carter, mostly because I think he will bring accountability back to the defensive line. Since Sapp left, there has been no one to answer to on the line — no true leader. Rice was a great pass rusher, but not a leader. Even Chris Hovan, who was the best lineman on the team last year, is more of a lunchpail guy. He’s great at his job, but is he a leader of men? In addition to Carter’s versatility and play-making, I think he will inspire the other players to bring their best game. Guys like Adams and Haye will need that. I also think he’ll have a highly productive year on the field.

The key loss is probably Shelton Quarles. In terms of production on the field, I would have cut Brooks before I cut Quarles, although I understand why they didn’t. When Barrett Ruud played in place of Quarles last year, you could see a definite drop-off in play. Ruud was good, but Quarles was quite obviously better. Ruud will need a couple years to raise his game to that level. Luckily, with the depth at linebacker and the new defensive fronts, the transition may not be as noticeable as if they were playing more standard Tampa 2.

Ski: Ignoring Jeff Garcia, I will go with another new addition to the defense…..Cato June. With their deepest linebacker corp ever June has a chance to be the best linebacker this season and the Colts will regret letting him go. June has had an outstanding exhibition season and will be the next great Buccaneer linebacker.

Biggest loss is Simeon Rice, who before last season had finished every year in Tampa with double digit sacks. It’s no coincidence that without Rice’s sack production the Bucs defense finished out of the Top Ten for the first time in a decade last season. Who’s going to replace that sack production, certainly not Kevin Carter who isn’t even starting. And while I believe Gaines Adams will be an excellent player in due time depending on him to generate the pass rush is asking too much of a rookie.

OK, now lets get to the rookie question on everyone’s mind: Is Sabby Piscitelli just a great white hype? Or can he actually grow into the Tampa defense and contribute — in time — making a name for himself and letting us forget that guy with Denver who was cut in favor of Charlie Garner?

And while on the subject of Rookies — in general who do you think will have the biggest impact? Gaines Adams is in position for it… For good or for ill.

Piscitelli had one of the best camps of any of the players. He is strong, fast and has great hands. Comparisons to John Lynch are valid, and I believe his coverage skills are superior to Lynch’s during his rookie year. When he gets some playing time, he will grow in the system and excel.

I ask that you not use Charlie Garner’s name in a Buccaneer conversation again.

The second question is tough. The rookie with the greatest chance to start that has the least depth behind him is Tanard Jackson. I’ll say him. If he performs up to his preseason level, he can make a huge impact in the secondary.

And for this I do apologize. This was the first official mockery of the “Grullen” tenure as GM/Coach/general overseer of the Buccaneer franchise. Darrell Russell was signed that off season for a limited try out, wasn’t he?

That’s another name I promise not to use again… But trying to defend him (as Bruce Allen did) is like standing up for Michael Vick and blaming the dogs instead.

I forgot about Scott’s mancrush on Sabby, he’s worse than Peter King’s obsession with Brett Favre. Sabby HAS looked good in the exhibition season but he has also made his fair share of rookie mistakes. That being written once Sabby becomes a starter it is guaranteed he will be a fan favorite.

Charlie Garner, Charlie Garner, Charlie Garner.

Arron Sears has the best chance to make an impact as a rookie since he is the only rookie starting. Cadillac Williams found most of his success running the ball two years behind the left side of the line, the same side Sears now inhabits. This is the best offensive line in the Gruden Era and much will depend on the left side which features two new starters in Sears and Luke Petitgout.

He stole my line! I’ve been insinuating he has a massive mancrush on the Italian Safety since his drafting this spring.

And isn’t the OL praise a contradiction? Best OL with several terrible OL’s in a row… It’s like saying St. Petersburg has the best ghetto in the Tampa Bay region… (not to sully Petigout who I think is a good pickup… I just have lost all confidence in Muir and what he brings to the table as a coach).

Wrong. For example, I do not have a sculpture of Sabby made of cheese as the focal point of my living room.

It’s not even a mancrush. He just had a good camp and every time I would report on how things went in camp, I had to mention him and how quick and strong he was and how soft yet commanding his hands were. Wait, what?

I understand your point and I am looking forward to seeing Sears play. But if Sears suddenly went on IR, Anthony Davis is still an upgrade over last year and I don’t think the drop-off in performance would be that great. Jackson will probably also start, and if he goes down, we’re back to Will Allen. Allen stepped it up in camp, but I’m still not ready to forgive him for last year.

You are vastly overestimating Tanard Jackson’s learning curve, who is still behind Will Allen in terms of playing ability. Jackson has showed potential but so has Allen multiple times. Additionally, there is a good chance Luke Petitgout will be injured which will move Anthony Davis to left tackle and leave Sears to play left guard with only Matt Buenning behind him.

Maybe. But if you kept up with camp, you know that Jackson also had a very productive training camp and demonstrated that he is comfortable with the defense. Jackson also outperformed Allen in the preseason, though one could argue that playing time was not equal so the comparison is strained.

Anyway, I don’t want to take anything away from Sears. The overall consensus is that Sears is the best option at left guard this year, and I think he will improve the running game considerably.

It’s Dan. Dan Buenning. Not Matt. Show some respect.

That’s exactly what will happen if Petitgout goes down. Also keep in mind that Sears was held out for a while with some mystery ailment and also injured his ankle a couple weeks ago. He’s been cleared to play, so it shouldn’t be a problem, but it’s something to watch. Basically the whole left side is questionable with really only Anthony Davis holding the whole thing together. Not that I’m worried, but the potential is there for some problems.

All right, all right… With all this Sears talk… The only thing that is jumping out at me is the fact I missed the latest Labor Day sale at the mall.

Is a Buccaneer winning season possible or improbable? What’s the over/under on a .500 win season (8 wins)?

I hate predictions like this. I never make them because it’s just a huge crapshoot that you can’t possibly guess correctly even if you have intimate knowledge of the team. So, I won’t give an exact number of wins. But I will say that I certainly think a winning season is possible. Every game is winnable. Between 8 and 11 wins, I’d say. And I’m not scared of Indianapolis, even as an away game. I think Monte will find a way to pull that one out.

Show some cojones and go out on a limb Scott. Vegas is giving the Bucs over/under win total at 7 1/2 and I will take the over with nine wins. The Bucs have one of the easier schedules in the league and you can’t understate how much of an improvement Jeff Garica will be over Bruce Gradkowski. Throw in more weapons for Monte Kiffin and both sides of the ball should be much improved. The Bucs will struggle during the first five weeks of their schedule but will rebound and win most of the games come October and November. Thus saving Jon Gruden’s job.

I knew you’d say something like that. 9 is reasonable. But just to be different than you, I’ll go with 8. Happy?

Ecstatic.

YOU GOT A PREDICTION FOR THE BUCCANEERS THIS SEASON? LEAVE ‘EM IN THE COMMENTS.