Sticks of Fire: a Tampa blog

The last time these two teams met the Bucs suffered their worst collapse in history. With an injured Brian Kelly sitting on the sidelines Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison scored 28 points in the fourth quarter to send the game into overtime and eventually win. I don’t criticize Monte Kiffin often but his refusal to shift Ronde Barber onto Harrison (he instead put Kelly’s backup on the best receiver in football) cost the Bucs the game. That game was the beginning of the end for a Bucs team less than a year removed from winning the Super Bowl. Here’s hoping the Bucs can exact revenge on the Colts this Sunday.

BY THE NUMBERS (DVOA and DAVE explained here)
Buccaneers
Offense: ppg, 20.2 - DVOA, 14.8% (#6) - DAVE, 10.0% (#6)
Defense: ppg, 11.0 - DVOA, -19.5% (#3) - DAVE, -14.7% (#2)
Colts
Offense: ppg, 32.8 - DVOA, 46.7% (#2) - DAVE, 36.8% (#2)
Defense: ppg, 18.5 - DVOA, -8.9% (#9) - DAVE, 0.7% (#16)

The numbers indicate the Bucs are legit, especially the DAVE stats which take into account pre-season projections. The Bucs offense has been able to consistently move the chains but has not been as good at putting points on the board. The Colts offense, on the other hand, has had no problem scoring points, they are the third leading scoring offense. The Colts defense has been outplaying their projections but the injuries to safety Bob Sanders and linebacker Rob Morris should bring the defense back down to earth. When Sanders was out last season the Colts defense couldn’t stop the run to save their life.

BY THE PLAYERS
Michael Pittman/Earnest Graham vs Colts Front Seven
There’s no secret on how you beat the Colts…..keep the ball out of Peyton’s hands. Good news, injuries have decimated the Colts run defense. Bad news, injuries have also decimated the Bucs run offense. Unless the Colts get to an early lead (a very likely possibility) Gruden will need to run early and often. The way to beat the Tampa Two defense is a power running game, which may play to Graham’s strengths. If the Bucs can run the ball they win, if not the Colts stay undefeated.