titans @ bucs: the preview
Who ever made the line for this game had to have been on crack, it’s insane the Bucs are favored by three points. Tennessee is 3-1, their only loss was to the Colts and they had a bye week to prepare for this game. By most accounts the Titans should be the team favored to win on Sunday.
BY THE NUMBERS (DVOA and DAVE explained here)
Buccaneers
Offense: ppg, 19.0 - DVOA, 13.0% (#6) - DAVE, 11.0% (#7)
Defense: ppg, 15.4 - DVOA, -8.1% (#9) - DAVE, -8.1% (#7)
Titans
Offense: ppg, 21.0 - DVOA, -4.5% (#21) - DAVE, -4.8% (#21)
Defense: ppg, 14.8 - DVOA, -27.6% (#1) - DAVE, -16.0% (#6)
The Bucs stats took a bit of a hit after the Colts game, especially the defense’s numbers. But on the bright side the Titans offense is no where as good as the Colts offense. I’m a believer in the tenet that Vince Young is overrated, and the Titan’s offensive stats appear to support that notion. Much like the Bucs team from the late-90’s, the Titans have one of the worst passing attacks and depend on the running game to move the chains.
Unfortunately, another trait this Titans teams shares with those great Bucs teams is a shut down defense. Tennessee has a Beast of a defensive line, Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch will give the Bucs o-line troubles. I don’t expect Last Man Standing Earnest Graham to have much success running the ball. On a more positive note, Jeff Garcia and Company should be able to take advantage of a Titans secondary with a few holes in it.
BY THE PLAYERS
LT Jeremy Trueblood vs. DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
Vanden Bosch has been raising hell from the defensive end position and will be the toughest test for Trueblood so far this season. Trueblood was successful against Julius Peppers but then again Peppers has not been playing on the same level as Vanden Bosch, who has two sacks this season (Peppers has zero). It’s no secret, with Cadillac and Pittman out the Bucs have become a passing team. Which means unless the o-line can keep defenders off Garcia the Bucs will lose this game.
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