Sticks of Fire: a Tampa blog

I can’t lie, it’s somewhat comforting to see injuries working in the Bucs favor for once as the Jags are forced to start a former receiver at quarterback. Tampa Bay’s roster has resembled a triage unit lately with injuries to half the offense, the latest to receivers Michael Clayton and Mark Jones. Hopefully, Garrad’s absence will swing the pendulum in Tampa Bay’s favor.

BY THE NUMBERS (DVOA and DAVE explained here)
Buccaneers
Offense: ppg, 17.7 - DVOA, 19.0% (#4) - DAVE, 18.2% (#4)
Defense: ppg, 15.7 - DVOA, -1.8% (#15) - DAVE, -1.5% (#14)
Jaguars
Offense: ppg, 17.8 - DVOA, 11.7% (#6) - DAVE, 11.7% (#6)
Defense: ppg, 14.5 - DVOA, -1.7% (#14) - DAVE, -4.9% (#12)

I wrote earlier this week how the Bucs offense has been surprisingly efficient but has not been anything special. The numbers bear this out as the Bucs have the fourth most efficient offense but are ranked 19th in scoring. They have been moving the ball just fine but have had trouble converting those drives into points, mostly because outside of the constantly double-teamed Joey Galloway the Bucs don’t have any play makers left on the offense.

On the other side of the ball for the Bucs the defense’s stats have decreased the last few weeks as they have played competent offenses. Even without their starting quarterback the Bucs will have a tough test against the double headed monster that is Maurice Jones-Drew/Fred Taylor. Jones-Drew especially has been getting his mojo back as of late, gaining 259 of 359 yards in the last three games (plus all 4 of his touchdowns on the season).

BY THE PLAYERS
Bucs o-line versus Jags d-line
Conventional wisdom says you have to establish the run to pass the ball but this Jags d-line turns that conventional wisdom on it’s head. As the Colts showed Monday an offense needs to establish the pass first to open up run lanes on this defense.

The Bucs o-line looks much improved from last year’s version but the six penalty performance last week is a cause for concern. Detroit has a very good d-line but not as good as Jacksonville’s, which creates the question if the Bucs struggled against the Lions how bad could things get against the Jags? Sunday’s game will be ugly but assuming the Bucs don’t repeat their mistakes from last weekend they should win this game.

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