Best Bucs Midseason Recap
Just past halfway through the season the Bucs have more wins than they did all of last season. But while this year’s Bucs team is better than last year do they have the horses to win in the postseason?
To answer that questions and a few more I was joined by Scott from BucStats with our own John from BoltsMag to moderate the discussion. Just as before, John is in bold, Scott is in italics, and I am plain ol’ text.
John: Well, lets start with the elephant in the room: Injuries. Can and will they be overcome?
Ski: This team was depending on Cadillac to really step up this year and losing him for the season will handicap the team in the playoffs. Throw in Luke Petitgout, who was brought in to protect Jeff Garcia’s blindside, and there is no way the Bucs can replace their production. By the way, it should be mentioned Scott is directly responsible for the Cadillac injury and should be tarred and feathered accordingly.
Scott: I’m not convinced the injuries to date have handicapped the Bucs enough to affect the games they’ve already played. Donald Penn is doing pretty well in place of Petitgout and Earnest Graham has beef effective running the ball whenever Gruden decides to give it to him. Based on what we’ve seen from Cadillac up until now, I don’t know that he would have done any better than Graham.
I think Patrick Churwurah’s and Greg Spires’s injuries are far more significant. The pass-rush is already pretty lackluster, and without those guys I think it will decline even further. This, of course, opens up the playbook for the opponents who will force the Bucs defense to blitz and then probably burn them on the long ball.
And if I really had the power to put people in traction, you’d be the first to know.
John: Play nice, you two. No blood on the… the…. um, Interweb tubes?
What’s the most telling stat right now on offense? Something that all Buc fans should note? And on the defensive side of the ball…?
Scott: The most telling stats is that the Bucs are out-gaining their opponents by significant margins and still losing. It shows that they are starting off with pretty bad field position but still move the ball for a while. Then they stall out and either have to punt or kick a field goal. Or in the case of last week, throw a pick. They just can’t finish off drives. For a passing team in the red zone, a tight end is your best friend. Maybe after Jerramy Stevens’s big catches last week, the team will have more faith in him and be able to punch the ball in the end zone a little more.
On defense, time of possession is probably the one I would look at a little. They’re staying out on the field too long. The Steelers and Patriots are both under 26 minutes on the field, so they stay fresher longer. The Bucs are almost at 32 minutes. That starts to matter in the fourth quarter.
Ski: I’m going with a bit of an obscure stat from FootballOutsiders.com, offensive DVOA. The Bucs have the fourth highest DVOA at 19% just behind the Pats, Colts and Cowboys; which reiterates Scott’s point - this team is moving the ball but not scoring points. I would quibble that Alex Smith and Clayton’s returns would do more to correct that than Stevens but that’s just splitting hairs.
John: For the sake of explaining to readers — what does DVOA stand for?
Ski: Basically DVOA takes into account how “successful” each play is as well as the strength of schedule to come up with a rating of every team’s offense and defense. Seeing as how this ain’t math class I won’t bore you with the details but suffice it to say DVOA has been one of the more reliable stats out there and even predicted the Bucs would lose to the Skins in the playoffs 2 years ago.
John: Interesting indeed. Everyone better take a look at that one.
Who’s been the surprise player on the Bucs? The biggest letdown (and point all snark and sarcasm at the quality of my questions if you wish — they are a let down to me as well)?
Ski:
Surprise: Jermaine Phillips
The safety has gone from being a liability to absolutely essential on the defense. The funny thing is it appears the only difference from last year is that Phillips is finally playing like he gives a damn.
Letdown: Maurice Stovall
He has had every opportunity to shine but has not taken advantage of the decreased depth among the receivers. Stovall was hyped as the Bucs #2 receiver during training camp but despite being injury free has fewer receiving yards than Earnest Graham and even BJ Askew.
Scott: I agree with those, but I should probably pick a couple different ones for the sake of conversation.
Surprise: B.J. Askew
The Bucs have had a pretty difficult time finding someone to take over for Mike Alstott in the traditional fullback role, and no one had any reason to believe Askew would be outstanding in any way. But he is an excellent run-blocker and has an uncanny knack for making people miss when he has the ball. Seriously, has anyone noticed that Alstott was gone?
Letdown: Gaines Adams
If he had been drafted lower, he wouldn’t be such a disappointment. But at #4 overall, you expect more production right away. 16 tackles and 2 sacks isn’t SO bad for a part-time pass-rusher, but I have yet to see a play where Adams just dominated his blocker and blew up the quarterback. First rounders need to make an immediate impact for all the money they are given.
John: So ultimately, do your predictions change with regards to the final standings for the Buccaneers this season (view the preview thread 1http://sticksoffire.com/2007/09/08/d…eview-pt-2/two or what not? and
Scott: This version seems to be slightly less entertaining than the first one. Maybe there aren’t enough ethnic slurs.
Well, my 8-8 projection is looking pretty good right now. And from the looks of their schedule for the rest of the season, that may be pessimistic. They still have to play the Falcons twice, the Texans and the 49ers. They should win those without a problem. Then if they squeeze another couple out of the Redskins (hey, there’s the ethnic slur!) and the Panthers, they certainly could climb into double digits.
Ski: Before the season started I predicted 9 wins for the Bucs. Taking into account the rest of their schedule and players returning from injury I am convinced the Bucs will get to 10 wins this season and will win the division.
But I also predict another first round exit for the Bucs this season (based on little more than a hunch so I’m probably wrong). The offense has been surprisingly efficient but the team can not run the ball against good defenses.
Tags: buccaneers, tampa
Loading ...
November 6th, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Is this really a blog entry? A complete and total rehash of a football game most of us watched complete with cheesecake photos?
…ad nauseum.