bucs @ saints: the preview
skiThe Saints are a much different team from when the Bucs beat them in Week 2. By now the Saints are no longer Super Bowl contenders and Reggie Bush has been exposed as a fraud. No team had been more over-hyped going into the season than New Orleans. At the beginning of the season many people had them tabbed as the favorite out of the NFC to make the Super Bowl, but now they would be lucky to make the playoffs.
BY THE NUMBERS (DVOA explained here)
Buccaneers
Offense: ppg, 19.5 (#20) - DVOA, 13.0% (#8)
Defense: ppg, 14.9 (#2) - DVOA, -8.1% (#8)
Saints
Offense: ppg, 22.1 (t#13) - DVOA, 5.2% (#12)
Defense: ppg, 22.9 (#21) - DVOA, 12.9% (#29)
For all the hype about the Saints offense by all statistical measures they are only average. Reggie Bush has turned out to be a poor replacement for Deuce McAllister.
Bush excels in the passing game but has failed to run the ball effectively. Bush’s early fame may have gotten to him as he has adopted the attitude of a prima donna receiver, i.e. he only tries hard when he’s in the end zone and rarely fights for extra yards.
Interestingly enough, the Football Outsiders stats actually rank the Bucs offense ahead of the Saints offense. Which makes sense when you factor in how much more efficient and less turnover-prone the Bucs have been since Jeff Garcia took over. Brees has 18 touchdowns but also has 15 interceptions compared to 11 touchdowns and 3 interceptions for Garcia. So the Saints are more likely to make a big play, but there is no telling if that big play will benefit the Saints or hurt them.
BY THE PLAYERS
Earnest Graham versus Saints D-line
In some very bad news for the Bucs it looks like Garcia is likely out for Sunday’s game. While at the very least Gruden would start Luke McCown over Bruce Gradkowski (who looked pitiful last week) most of the offensive load would likely fall on Earnest Graham’s shoulders. Graham has proven to be a much more powerful runner than most people expected and while he does not have the same ability as Cadillac Williams to make big plays he has proven to be a better receiver than Cadillac.
While the Saints defense has turned out to be one of the worst in the league they still have an above average defensive line. The Saints defense relies so much on New Orleans having the lead, which explains why they have struggled this season. All of the talent is on the d-line, with the linebackers, and to a lesser degree the secondary, filled with castoffs from other teams. If Garcia is good to go I like the Bucs, if not the Saints should be the favorites.
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December 4th, 2007 at 12:42 am
Despite Jeebus McNown giving the Saints a 9 point lead, the Bucs were able to still pull this one off with a stellar defensive effort in the second half and a never say die effort from the offense.
Although I love what the bucs are doing this year, it actually questions what the hell is Gruden doing. He started Brad mafiacowksik last year when he had Jeebus on the bench. He has had Earnest Graham on the team for 3 years yet has never utilized him. Chucky, wake the fuck up!!!!