Sticks of Fire: a Tampa blog

That’s right.  Forget winning the division.  I mean, the Magic Number is ONE.  One, uno, (1).  If Tampa Bay cannot win 1 of four from the lowly Tigers, then they will fail miserably in the playoffs anyway.

But for a real challenge, they should go for the best record in the American League.  That Magic Number for the Rays to beat out the LA Angels is SIX.  Any combination of Rays wins and Angels losses that equal six will get the Rays home field advantage throughout the playoffs (remember, the AL team has home field advantage in the World Series thanks to the All-Star game win back in July).

This means that the Angels must lose at least 2 games, since there are only four remaining.

On second thought, it’s a bit uncouth to root for other teams to lose.

On third thought, Jimmy cracked corn and all that.

Anyway, The Rays can clinch the AL East with a win today in Detroit.  You should know around 430pm, when there may be a street party in St. Pete.

Your Weekly Rays Update

MAGIC NUMBER TO CLINCH AL EAST: 6

Overall: 92-62
Last Week: BOS (2-1), MIN (2-2)
This Week: @ BAL, @ DET

It’s been too long since the last Rays update on the Sticks but there is no better occasion to reintroduce this feature than the Rays clinching the playoffs.  During spring training, Manager Joe Maddon emphasized the team slogan, 9=8, i.e. if the 9 Rays starters played hard for 9 innings they would win one of the 8 playoffs spots.  Maddon’s slogan has turned into a prophesy as the Rays are now a lock for the first playoff series in franchise history.

Tampa Bay…92—62 __ .597
Boston………….91—64 __ .587
New York……..84—71 __ .542
Toronto……….83—73 __ .532
Baltimore…….67—86 __ .438

The Rays have a 1.5 game lead over the Red Sox, which is essentially a 2 game lead since the Rays own the tie-breaker over the Red Sox. With a week to go in the season, the Rays have a 72% chance of winning the division according to Baseball Prospectus. And considering that the O’s and Tigers both have losing records the Rays have an easy path from here to their first ever division title.

Whatever happens from here, the Rays are essentially playing with house money. Few expected them to compete for the playoffs, and no one that I saw had them winning the division. This is a team which was built to win next year, and for the next three or four years after that. I’ve spoken to a few people (mostly Yankees fans) who write off the Rays as a fluke, and believe they will lose their best players next year. Almost all the key players on this team are young and locked up to long term contracts. This team should only get better over the next few seasons.

PRICE IS UP
David Price will make his first major league start today against Baltimore. Price was originally scheduled to make his first start on Tuesday but Maddon likes the match up for Price today better.

PLAYOFF TIX
Playoff tickets go on sale to the general public Wednesday at 9 am. You can stop by the Rays website to pickup tickets but not only have the Rays given first priority to season ticket holders but fans were given the opportunity to pre-register for tickets.

PLAYOFF OPPONENTS
If the Rays win the AL East they will play the winner of the AL Central, which is likely to be the White Sox. That series would begin in St Pete. If the Rays lose the division then they have to travel to LA to play the Angels. No matter what the Rays will avoid playing the Red Sox in the first round.

Ok, forget what anyone has said about pivotal moments for the Rays. The three game series against the Boston Red Sox that began last night is undoubtedly the biggest thing to ever happen in Tampa Bay baseball history…to date anyway. After Wednesday night’s game, the Rays could find themselves anywhere from feeling free to place an order for division championship t-shirts to locked in a battle to even make the postseason.

It’s time to go to the games, folks. If you’re a fan of this team at all, there are simply no valid excuses. It’s the middle of September and meaningful major league baseball is being played in Tampa Bay. This is what the collective we have been saying we wanted for more than 20 years! So suck it up, drive over there (carpooling saves gas and gets you free parking), ignore the dome and the fake grass (but feel free to enjoy the air conditioning and not being rained on), deal with being a little tired at work after staying up late and root, root, root for the home team. It will be worth it.

Labor Day weekend is passing us by and that means the traditional end of summer has been marked. Oh, sure, we have a few more weeks until the fall equinox, but to many - summer is over.

And with the end of summer here, it’s go time in Tampa Bay sports. The Buccaneers kicks off their season this Sunday, the USF Bulls football squad has already started their 12th season of play, the Tampa Bay Lightning begins training camp in a matter of days.

Oh, yeah… That team in St. Pete? I hear the Tampa Bay Rays have a chance to continue playing games after the regular season ends September 28th.

So lets pose the question to all you Tampa Bay sports fans: Which team is going to have the best fall? The Buccaneers? The Lightning? How about the Rays? Or will it be the Bulls?

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I know the only thing worse than hearing a fan whine about how the officials are cheating against their favorite team is hearing a fan whine about how the officials are cheating against their FIRST PLACE team.

But seeing not one, but two utterly heinous blown calls go against the beloved home town Tampa Bay Rays twice within a week is enough to make one at least react like this:

Granted, Sunday’s game in Chicago probably shouldn’t have even gone to extra innings. However, I fear that Shawn Riggans might be the Rays answer to former Lightning defender Pavel Kubina. He’s a dedicated team guy that you really want to embrace because he works hard and isn’t afraid to do more than his share of dirty work but always seems to do that one dumb thing in a game that makes you react like this:

In this case, it was dropping the ball on as easy and routine a play at home plate as you’re ever likely to see which allowed the tying run to score. Excuse me for a second please…

Of course, that doesn’t excuse the heinousness that followed.

Now, no reasonable person should think that any kind of “fix” is taking place. For one, this isn’t the NBA. Secondly, there are literally millions of reasons to believe that if there was some kind of dark conspiracy taking place behind the scenes to favor one team over another, it probably wouldn’t be for the White Sox:

Third, and most important, we’re still in first place.

Cross posted at Ridiculously inconsistent trickle of consciousness

CBS News anchor Katie Couric mistakenly said that the GOP convention was going to be in Minneapolis, when it will really be in St. Paul.  The Pioneer Press was appalled:

Minneapolis is a fine city, but it is 10 or so miles from the [Xcel Energy Center]. Couric and CBS join a long list of Giants of Journalism who have gotten their geography wrong.

Couric, like the other erring Giants, lives in that great city along the Hudson River in New York State — the city we like to call Newark.

Heh.  Of course, Couric apologized.

But she would get the same here if she referred to the local baseball team as the Tampa Rays.

Your Weekly Rays Update

Overall: 61-43
Last Week: Oak (2-1), @ KC (2-2)
This Week: @ TOR, DET

While it was nice winning the A’s series, the Royals series left a sour taste in the Rays mouth. The Royals are one of the worst teams in the AL and the Rays should have, at the very least, been able to take 3 games from Kansas City. Instead we have Joe Maddon ripping into his team for a lack of hustle and a split series with a sub-.500 team.

Tampa Bay…61—43 __ .587
Boston………….61—45 __ .575
New York……..58—46 __ .558
Toronto……….53—52 __ .505
Baltimore…….49—55 __ .471

Since I don’t want to be a complete Deputy Downer on the local baseball collective, I should mention the Rays still lead the division and it appears Carl Crawford may have broken out of his slump. Still, the eternal pessimist in me wonders if the Rays can keep up their winning pace from the first half of the season? Or will the 162 game schedule get the best of a young team that is experiencing a winning record for the first time? Personally, I still think the Rays finish second in the division but win the Wild Card.

TRADE DEADLINE
The trade deadline is this Thursday and for the first time ever the Rays are buyers. Outs Per Swing has the best recap of trade rumors but it appears the Rays are unwilling to part with top prospects; David Price, Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson. Which is the smart move as the Rays were originally designed to start winning next year, and it would be foolish to trade away their best pitching prospect (i.e. Price) for a one year rental.

ROCCO’S RETURN
A month ago I was convinced we would never see Rocco Baldelli playing in the majors again but most signs point to me being wrong. Rocco has been playing well in AA Montgomery and could be the right handed bat everyone says the Rays need. Assuming Price and Baldelli were called up late in the season the Rays may not need to trade for anyone.

Your Weekly Rays Update

Overall: 58-40
Last Week: AL Won All Star Game, Jays (2-1)
This Week: OAK, @ KC

Considering this was the first All Star game that had any real importance to the Rays (for obvious reasons), it was good to see the three Rays play well in it. Evan Longoria had a game tying RBI hit in the bottom of the 8th and Scott Kazmir picked up the win in one inning of relief work. Even Dioner Navarro helped turn a key double play in the 9th inning (although Navarro also gave up a run on an error the inning before). We all know the Rays are a young team but all three Rays who played in the All Star game were 24 or younger. That’s just the fifth time since 1963 a team has sent three players 24 or younger to the All Star game.

Tampa Bay…58—40 __ .592
Boston………….58—43 __ .574
New York……..54—45 __ .545
Baltimore…….48—50 __ .490
Toronto……….48—51 __ .485

The Rays probably don’t deserve to be in first in the division considering the seven games they dropped before the All Star break, yet there they are. We have three Red Sox losses to the Angels to thank for that. Of concern is the fact that the Rays play dreadful on the road (19-25). The Rays have been saved by their home record (41-15) but it’s difficult to consider the team a serious playoff contender unless they can improve their road record.

HERE WE GO AGAIN
A Commission has been formed as a joint effort between St Petersburg, Pinellas and the Rays to find a site for a new stadium. The Commission, called A Baseball Community, Inc. is looking for applications for the 9 member committee that will head this coalition. The Times Stadium blog, Ballpark Frankness, has a guess at the potential membership of this committee and the biggest question seems to be, will someone from the anti-stadium group, POWW, be allowed on the committee? Personally, I’m torn on the value of adding someone from POWW to this group.

LONGORIA HOT, UPTON NOT
Apologies for the uncreative headline but Longoria has been on fire since the All Star break with 3 homeruns in his last three games. On the flip side BJ Upton has played poorly lately and Joe Maddon has moved Upton around in the lineup to take pressure off of Upton until he finds his swing. Upton is not the only Ray struggling (Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena have as well) so you have to wonder how long can a rookie (i.e. Longoria) essentially carry the Rays offense?.

PERCIVAL BACK
Reliever Troy Percival returns from the 15 day DL and should pitch sometime this week. While the Rays bullpen as a whole is much improved from last season Percival seems to provide a calming influence for a young team.

PLAYOFF ODDS: 84%
(Courtesy Baseball Prospectus)

Your Weekly Rays Update

Overall: 57-40
Last Week: @ NYY (0-2), @CLE (0-4)
This Week: All Star Game

That was ugly. After winning six straight games the Rays dropped their last seven before the All Star break, falling a half game behind the Sawx for first place in the AL East. The Rays have struggled on the road this season (19-25), but the last week was especially bad as the Rays managed to score only 9 runs in 6 road games. Things have gotten so bad Rays of Light is on strike until the Rays quit playing like a minor league team.

Boston………….57—40 __ .588
Tampa Bay…55—39 __ .585
New York……..50—45 __ .526
Toronto……….47—48 __ .495
Baltimore…….45—48 __ .484

Despite the addition of Evan Longoria and the outstanding performance from Dioneer Navaro, the Rays offense is not as productive as last season. Last season, the Rays averaged 4.8 runs per game. This year they are averaging 4.6. Some decline was expected considering the loss of Delmon Young and Carlos Pena’s struggles with injury, but Carl Crawford’s Batting Average and On Base Percentage are both down considerably this season. Crawford has blamed his occasional move to center field as the reason for his struggles, a statement which would carry more weight if CC didn’t already play left field full time. Crawford is the leader of this young team and needs to put aside his differences with Joe Maddon for what is best for the team.

EVAN LONGORIA’s WEEK
Losing aside, last week was a good one for the Dirtbag as he was voted into the last spot on the AL All Star team and named the most valuable player in baseball. That last honor is given to Longoria by the blog Fangraphs and is based on the Dirtbag’s offensive performance, defensive ability and payroll friendly contract. Longoria is also in the home run derby tonight.

PLAYOFF ODDS
The Rays currently have a 55% chance of making the playoffs according to one website. This seems somewhat low considering that only one team (Boston) has had the best record in baseball by July 4th and not made the playoffs. I still think the Rays lose the division but win the wild card spot.

DICKY V
Dick Vitale may be the most famous Rays fans but that doesn’t mean he is the best Rays fan. A week after supporting Longoria’s All Star campaign Dicky V was spotted at the Red Sox-O’s game trying to get some love from a Red Sox player. I saw the original video on ESPN on Saturday and have looked all over the place for it but in the video Vitale reaches out his fist to a Red Sox player walking back to the dugout for a fist bump and the Red Sox player ignores Vitale and fist bumps the fan next to Vitale. I really wish I could find the video of this ’cause my description does not capture one tenth the awesomeness contained in the clip.

UPDATE: As a commenter points out, it was likely an O’s player not Sawx player Vitale tried to get a high five/fist bump from. Without the video I honestly am not sure. Again, let me repeat that my description does not come close to describing the sheer comedy of Dick Vitale being turned denied. I am forever indebted to anyone who can find the video of this.